Pharma Reform

Recent announcements and news coverage about health insurance company actual and anticipated rate increases may have gotten President Obama’s attention but more importantly, raises serious questions about how and if increasing costs will or can be controlled in the new world of healthcare reform.  Keep in mind that we are all paying for increasing healthcare costs regardless of whether we have private insurance, employer provided (your paycheck deduction increasing for your share ) or  government subsidized coverage (your taxes at work).

One of the near term beneficiaries of out of control healthcare costs is going to be the pharmaceutical industry.  Coverage and use of expensive branded prescription drugs will continue and while adoption and market acceptance may be slowed by higher introductory prices for new prescription drugs, they will most likely still get on formularies and be available for physicians to prescribe.  I believe, however,  this will be a short lived upside.  Without change and a focus on cost control, here is how I see it playing out.

In the near term, as long as insurance companies and pharmacy benefit providers can continue to raise their rates to cover their costs and maintain profitability, there is little incentive to get aggressive about coverage or costs.  If patients and physicians demand treatment, including expensive procedures or branded prescription drugs, insurers may assess the impact on profitability near-term and they may go through the motions of evaluating reasonableness long-term but in the end they know they have the ability to cover costs by squeezing providers and increasing rates.  So, it really doesn’t cost them anything to include coverage for example of expensive branded prescription drugs. Their only incentive to keep costs down is to remain competitive, but in reality there really isn’t that much competition (similar insurance premiums) amongst the few providers available in a particular geographic healthcare market.

Lack of competition and the ability to raise rates to cover increasing costs will eventually make healthcare insurance unaffordable for businesses to provide, for individuals to consider, and for government to adequately subsidize.  At that point healthcare reform will meet a crossroad of needing to legislate cost controls (e.g., limit insurance rate increases) or be forced to a single payer system. Both options will impose reductions in coverage and costs that will seem draconian by today’s standards of care.  Expensive procedure and branded prescription drugs for which there are less expensive therapeutic options or that can not demonstrate real cost benefit will be first on the hit list.

Unfortunately, a real opportunity for healthcare reform will have been missed as cost cutting becomes the quick fix method of choice for reestablishing sanity to healthcare coverage.  Incentives to dramatically reduce costs will be stronger than those to increase efficiency and leverage cost benefit.  Prospects for efficiencies driven by electronic medical records will stall out as funding is seen more as an expense rather than an investment. Wellness programs and personalized medicine will be wishful thinking as they flounder in development without a chance to mature and deliver the anticipated cost saving benefits.

Despite pleading from the president and state governors, current healthcare reform initiatives will not keep insurance premiums in check  or  moderate increasing costs and ensure long term healthcare affordability.  Pharmaceutical companies will definitely benefit from the  lack of  health insurance competition and a healthcare market with no incentives or serious mandates to reduce or control increasing costs but may be among the first and hardest hit when controlling healthcare costs becomes a priority.

mike@pharmareform.com